How the Last Five No. 1 NBA Draft Picks Are Trending

No. 1 NBA Draft Picks and Their Card Markets

The NBA Draft always brings a fresh wave of attention to the top selection, and the 2026 class is no exception after AJ Dybantsa went first overall to the Washington Wizards. With that latest headline in place, it is a good time to look back at how the sports card markets for the last five No. 1 NBA Draft picks have moved.

The picture is mixed. Some top picks have seen strong long-term growth, some have cooled after early hype, and others are still climbing. The recent market movement for each player reflects both on-court performance and the level of excitement that followed their arrival in the league.

2021 No. 1 Pick Cade Cunningham

Cade Cunningham stands out as one of the few modern No. 1 picks whose card market is still near its peak. Drafted by the Detroit Pistons in 2021, Cunningham entered the hobby during a period when basketball card demand was surging across the board, and his cards have continued to hold strong.

The source points to his 2021 Panini Prizm Silver Prizm rookie card as his biggest-moving card by market cap, listed at $353.54k. That card reached a high of $1,399 last April during a strong stretch for the Pistons and is now selling in the $900 range. Even with that pullback from the peak, it remains in the same general value range it occupied in 2022.

More broadly, Cunningham's card market has shown impressive momentum. The Index Data cited in the source shows 79.68% growth over the last year, which lines up with a season that strengthened his profile as a true franchise-level player.

2022 No. 1 Pick Paolo Banchero

Paolo Banchero's card market tells a very different story. The Orlando Magic forward has been a solid player and a useful fantasy option, but the market has not matched the expectations that surrounded him before his NBA debut.

Like Cunningham, Banchero's top card by market cap is a Silver Prizm rookie card. In his case, the 2022 Prizm card has lost nearly half of its value from its peak in 2023. The source notes that it is still trading in the mid-$300 range, but that is well below its earlier high.

At the time of the article, Banchero's overall Index Data value sits at $306, with an all-time low of $303 recorded just days earlier. That places his market at its weakest point so far, even if the card remains far from worthless in absolute terms.

2023 No. 1 Pick Victor Wembanyama

Victor Wembanyama is the clearest example of a No. 1 pick whose card market is still moving up. The San Antonio Spurs star remains one of the hottest names in basketball card collecting, and the source says his market is at its peak even after the Spurs' 4-1 loss in the NBA Finals.

The article makes the point bluntly: if a Wembanyama card was purchased before the Western Conference Finals, there is a strong chance it is now worth more than the original purchase price. The source also says that anyone holding a PSA 10 rookie card before the season began would have seen especially strong gains.

No single card type is singled out as the only winner. Instead, the broader takeaway is that nearly any card with Victor Wembanyama's name attached has benefited from the ongoing demand around him.

2024 No. 1 Pick Zaccharie Risacher

Zaccharie Risacher is the most recent No. 1 pick to show a sharp decline in the card market. The Atlanta Hawks forward had a respectable rookie season and finished second in Rookie of the Year voting behind Stephon Castle, which suggested room for future growth.

His sophomore season was less encouraging. The source says he struggled more and saw reduced court time in limited minutes off the bench, and that his card market has already reacted accordingly.

For comparison, the article uses Risacher's Silver Prizm rookie card in a PSA 10. In mid-2025, that card was averaging around $250. By mid-2026, the average had fallen to roughly $60 to $70, with the most recent sale at $100. The source also notes that an identical copy sold last April for $31, a price that barely covers grading costs.

That kind of movement shows how quickly a market can shift when production and opportunity on the court do not match early expectations.

2025 No. 1 Pick Cooper Flagg

Cooper Flagg enters the conversation with a different kind of profile. The Dallas Mavericks rookie has already lived up to much of the hype that surrounded him, and the source identifies him as the newly crowned Rookie of the Year after his first NBA season.

Flagg is expected to become a centerpiece for the Mavericks in the years ahead and is viewed in the article as a possible successor to Luka Dončić in one way or another. Because he has only completed one season, the sample size for evaluating his long-term card market is still limited.

The source says the Index Data shows a steady decline, which it describes as expected for any player after an early surge. At the same time, sales data from the last three months show a more balanced pattern of highs and lows rather than a dramatic collapse.

For a comparison card, the article points to a Topps Chrome Refractor as the closest equivalent to a Panini Prizm Silver Prizm. That card is also identified as Flagg's biggest card by market cap, with a value of $1.12M. The overall message is that his market is still in a healthy position, with only a slight decline over the last three months.

What the Last Five No. 1 Picks Say About the Market

Looking at these five players together shows how differently the hobby can respond to top draft talent. Cunningham has held strong and continues to trend upward. Banchero has cooled to an all-time low. Wembanyama remains in a powerful growth phase. Risacher has already seen a steep drop. Flagg is still early in his career, but his market remains supported by strong demand and a massive price point on his top card.

The common thread is that draft position alone does not determine card performance. Market movement depends on a mix of production, team context, collector confidence, and timing. A No. 1 pick can rise quickly, stall, or fall just as fast depending on how those factors line up.

With AJ Dybantsa now officially the latest player to hear his name called first overall, the hobby will soon begin another cycle of speculation, early sales, and market comparisons. The recent history of the last five No. 1 picks shows that the card market does not always move in step with draft-night excitement, even when the player at the center of it all is viewed as the future of the NBA.